Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Tools for Biorefineries

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Biomass Program promotes the development of technologies for converting biomass into valuable fuels, chemicals, and power that foster the growth of biorefineries with the goal of reducing foreign oil imports. Analysis plays a critical role in evaluating progress towards goals, but can also be an important tool in understanding the value and impact of research. The complexity of the decision-making process can be quantified to a large extent with the development of specific tools that incorporate uncertainty and risk in the parameter space. This project proposes to develop and use a unique set of analysis tools to evaluate research progress, from a research project level and at the Program/policy level.
The main focus of this effort is to apply systematic methods, algorithms, and approaches for rapid, reliable, and robust multiple objective optimal decision making under uncertainty and to successfully apply these methods to diverse application areas. We will harness multidisciplinary expertise in the areas of modeling, optimization, uncertainty analysis, manufacturing, process design and control, environmental and ecosystem management, security systems analysis, and operation research to collaboratively address research challenges.